The Oil Firing Technical Association (Oftec) has predicted more stable kerosene prices for 2009, as a result of a report by consultant EIC it commissioned.
The report predicts the price of a litre of kerosene in mainland Great Britain will be 36p in the first quarter of 2009, rising to 37p per litre for the second quarter of the year, and 39p per litre for the third quarter before reaching an estimated 41p per litre for the final quarter of 2009.
The peak price in 2008 was 60p per litre in July.
Oftec director general Jeremy Hawksley said: “The lower price of oil will be a huge comfort to the 1.9 million households in the UK and Ireland that have seen the cost of their oil heating oil soar and then fall back again during 2008. These new figures suggest only a very slow increase from the currently low price of oil.”
The report analyses the relationship between the price of Brent Crude, and the price of kerosene going back over a number of years. This takes into account a number of economic variables including inflation, interest rates and the US dollar/pound exchange rate as oil is traded in US dollars. The objective is to model the indicative quarterly price of kerosene going forward.
Mr Hawksley said that the lower prices forecast for oil meant that kerosene retains a competitive price advantage over other off-gas mains fuels such as LPG.