National Grid has detailed what it sees as the uncertainties facing the UK energy market in its 2013 edition of the UK Future Energy Scenarios (UK FES) document.
National Grid found that the principal factors that lead to uncertainty in its scenarios were:
- Political uncertainty, including the effectiveness of policy interventions, particularly those that seek to influence consumer behaviour;
- Economic uncertainty and the timing and strength of recovery and the nature of that recovery e.g. the balance of services vs. manufacturing industry;
- Social uncertainty and how our choices as consumers will affect the timing and scale of changes in energy demand;
- Technology uncertainty in both the supply and demand side and what ‘disruptors’ may emerge over the next 20 years and beyond.
The annual publication provides a detailed analysis of credible future energy scenarios out to 2035 and 2050.
The scenarios are used as a reference point for a range of modelling activities including detailed network analysis which enables National Grid to identify potential gas and electricity network investment requirements in the future.
This year National Grid has developed its Slow Progression and Gone Green scenarios but has decided to retire the Accelerated Growth scenario, the publication stated.
Gone Green is designed to meet environmental targets: 15 per cent of all energy from renewable sources by 2020, greenhouse gas emissions meeting the carbon budgets out to 2027 and an 80 per cent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.